(Не)совершенная случайность. Как случай управляет нашей жизнью - Млодинов Леонард

, 106 43. .., ; , . , , , [39 - Cicero, quoted in Morris Kline, Mathematical Thought from Ancient to Modern Times (London: Oxford University Press, 1972), 1:179.]. , , , [40 - Morris Kline, Mathematics in Western Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1953), p. 86.]. , : , , , , , , . - [41 - , , .178179.]! , . . , , , [42 - Cicero, quoted in Warren Weaver, Lady Luck (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1982), p. 53.].

. , , , , , , , . , , , [43 - Cicero, quoted in F. N. David, Gods, Games and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1998), pp. 2426.]. , , . , . , , , ; , 216. .. , : 80. 60. , , , . [44 - Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 24.]. , , , [45 - Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 25.]. , - , , , , .

probabilis, , . , , I, , [46 - James Franklin, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), pp. 4, 8.]. , , : , .. , . . , , . , , , , , . ( : , .) , , , , - : . , [47 - Quoted ibid., p. 13.].

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, VIII XIV. , , . , . , . : , ? , , , , .

, : , B, , , B , . , 1 50. , 1 5000. ? , , : 1/50 ? 1/5000, 1/250000. , , : , , , ? 1 250.000.

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, : , , . , 1 , 2 . , : 2 3 , , . , : , , 2/3 ? 2/3, 44%. , , , , 1/3 ? 1/3, 11%. , . , , ? . , , 2 3 , . , , .

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, , . , : , , , : , . : A, B, C .., A B A B, (A, B, C ..) 1 (. 100%). , , , , , ; , , , , . . , ? , , , , . , 55%.

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