(Не)совершенная случайность. Как случай управляет нашей жизнью - Млодинов Леонард

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notes








1


Stanley Meisler, First in 1763: Spain Lottery Not Even War Stops It, Los Angeles Times, December 30, 1977.




2


: Michael Patrick Allen, Sharon K. Panian, and Roy E. Lotz, Managerial Succession and Organizational Performance: A Recalcitrant Problem Revisited, Administrative Science Quarterly 24, no. 2 (June 1979): 16780; : M. Craig Brown, Administrative Succession and Organizational Performance: The Succession Effect, Administrative Science Quarterly 27, no. 1 (March 1982): 116; : Oscar Grusky, Managerial Succession and Organizational Effectiveness, American Journal of Sociology 69, no. 1 (July 1963): 2131, and William A. Gamson and Norman A. Scotch, Scapegoating in Baseball, American Journal of Sociology 70, no. 1 (July 1964): 6972; : Ruud H. Koning, An Econometric Evaluation of the Effect of Firing a Coach on Team Performance, Applied Economics 35, no. 5 (March 2003): 55564.




3


James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Doubleday, 2004), pp. 21819.




4


Armen Alchian, Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory, Journal of Political Economy 58, no. 3 (June 1950): 213.




5


. , , , , . ( . .)




6


Kerstin Preuschoff, Peter Bossaerts, and Steven R. Quartz, Neural Differentiation of Expected Reward and Risk in Human Subcortical Structures, Neuron 51 (August 3, 2006): 38190.




7


Benedetto De Martino et al., Frames, Biases, and Rational Decision-Making in the Human Brain, Science 313 (August 4, 2006): 68487.




8


, . . . . ... .: -: , 1999.




9


Matt Johnson and To m Hundt, Hog Industry Targets State for Good Reason, Vernon County (Wisconsin) Broadcaster, July 17, 2007.




10


Kevin McKean, Decisions, Decisions, Discover, June 1985, pp. 2231.




11


David Oshinsky, No Thanks, Mr. Nabokov, New York Times Book Review, September 9, 2007.




12


.




13


William Goldman, Adventures in the Screen Trade (New York: Warner Books, 1983), p. 41.




14


. Arthur De Vany, Hollywood Economics (Abington, U.K.: Routledge, 2004).




15


William Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 2nd ed. (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957), p. 68. , , , , .




16


Leonard Mlodinow, Meet Hollywoods Latest Genius, Los Angeles Times Magazine, July 2, 2006.




17


Variety , 1905.




18


Dave McNary, Par Goes for Grey Matter, Variety, January 2, 2005.




19


Ronald Grover, Paramounts Cold Snap: The Heat Is On, BusinessWeek, November 21, 2003.




20


Dave McNary, Parting Gifts: Old Regimes Pics Fuel Paramount Rebound, Variety, August 16, 2005.




21


Anita M. Busch, Canton Inks Prodn Pact at Warners, Variety, August 7, 1997.




22


, , , , .




23


The Making of a Hero, Time, September 29, 1961, p. 72. .




24


Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris: The Photographic Essay, Life, August 18, 1961, p. 62.




25


, : , , , , : , ( . .). , , .




26


. Stephen Jay Gould, The Streak of Streaks, New York Review of Books, August 18, 1988, pp. 812 ( ). , , 2 , Charles M. Grinstead, William P. Peterson, and J. Laurie Snell : Fat Chance; www.math.dartmouth.edu/~prob/prob/NEW/bestofchance.pdf




27


: , .




28


Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), pp. 9098.




29


Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment, Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (October 1983): 293315.




30


Craig R. Fox and Richard Birke, Forecasting Trial Outcomes: Lawyers Assign Higher Probabilities to Possibilities That Are Described in Greater Detail, Law and Human Behavior 26, no. 2 (April 2002): 15973.




31


. . . . -, , . ., 1948.




32


, , . .




33


, , . . , . 1965.




34


, , . . . ., 1993.




35


Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability, Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 20732.




36


Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology and Judgement of Decision Making (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 2001), p. 87.




37


Robert M. Reyes, William C. Thompson, and Gordon H. Bower, Judgmental Biases Resulting from Differing Availabilities of Arguments, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 1 (1980): 212.




38


Robert Kaplan, The Nothing That Is: A Natural History of Zero (London: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp. 1517.




39


Cicero, quoted in Morris Kline, Mathematical Thought from Ancient to Modern Times (London: Oxford University Press, 1972), 1:179.




40


Morris Kline, Mathematics in Western Culture (London: Oxford University Press, 1953), p. 86.




41


, , .178179.




42


Cicero, quoted in Warren Weaver, Lady Luck (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1982), p. 53.




43


Cicero, quoted in F. N. David, Gods, Games and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas (Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications, 1998), pp. 2426.




44


Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 24.




45


Cicero, quoted in Bart K. Holland, What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002), p. 25.




46


James Franklin, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), pp. 4, 8.




47


Quoted ibid., p. 13.




48


Quoted ibid., p. 14.




49


William C. Thompson, Franco Taroni, and Colin G. G. Aitken, How the Probability of a False Positive Affects the Value of DNA Evidence, Journal of Forensic Sciences 48, no. 1 (January 2003): 18.




50


Ibid., p. 2.